There’s a noticeable shift in the tone of the property market as we move through 2026. Not a downturn. Not a surge. Something more nuanced - a recalibration.

The latest data from ESPC for Q1 paints a picture of a market that is holding its nerve. Average selling prices across the region have risen to £287,024, up year-on-year, despite a 7.5% drop in transaction volumes.

At first glance, that might feel contradictory. Fewer sales, but higher prices? In reality, it tells a more sophisticated story about supply, demand, and sentiment.

More Choice, More Balance

One of the most significant developments this quarter is the increase in new listings. For the past few years, constrained supply has been a defining feature of the market, driving competition and, in many cases, inflated expectations.

That pressure is now easing.

Buyers have more choice. Sellers face more competition. And as a result, we’re seeing a more balanced marketplace emerge - one where pricing strategy, presentation, and positioning matter more than ever.

Homes are also taking slightly longer to go under offer, with the median sitting at 31 days. This isn’t a slowdown to be feared; it’s a return to something more sustainable. The frantic pace of recent years was never going to last indefinitely.

The End of Blind Bidding?

Another subtle but important shift is the reduction in closing dates, now sitting at around 16.6% of sales.

For buyers, this reduces some of the opacity and pressure that has characterised the Scottish system in recent years. For sellers, it introduces a different challenge - how to create competitive tension without relying on a closing date scenario.

Interestingly, despite these changes, properties are still achieving, on average, 100.9% of Home Report value.

That figure tells you everything you need to know about underlying demand. It hasn’t disappeared. It’s simply become more selective.

The Global Context Matters

We can’t look at the property market in isolation. The broader economic backdrop continues to shape behaviour.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are feeding into energy prices and inflation expectations. In response, mortgage rates remain elevated, with the Bank of England holding base rates at 3.75%.

For buyers, affordability remains front of mind. For sellers, this reinforces the importance of realistic pricing and understanding the financial constraints of the market.

And yet, despite all of this, prices are holding firm.

That resilience speaks to something deeper - a structural demand for property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife, and the Borders that continues to underpin the market.

What This Means in Practice

For those looking to sell, the strategy has evolved.

This is no longer a market where you can simply “test” a price and rely on excess demand to do the heavy lifting. Buyers are more informed, more cautious, and more discerning. Getting the fundamentals right - pricing, marketing, and timing - is critical.

For buyers, there is opportunity.

Greater choice and less competition at closing dates create a more navigable landscape. But decisiveness remains key. The best properties are still attracting strong interest and achieving full value.

For investors, the message is one of quiet confidence.

The data suggests stability rather than volatility. In uncertain times, that’s often exactly what you’re looking for.

A Market Growing Up

If the past few years were defined by intensity, Q1 2026 feels more mature.

Less frenzy. More thought.

A market that is still active, still competitive, but ultimately more balanced.

And in many ways, that’s a healthier place to be - for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.