After months of speculation and “will they, won’t they” rhetoric, the Bank of England may finally be preparing to ease interest rates—sooner than many expected. This week’s weaker-than-forecast jobs data has given markets the signal they’ve been waiting for.

But behind the headlines lies a more nuanced story—one that matters directly to homeowners, buyers, and investors across Scotland. Especially in our core markets of Edinburgh, East Lothian, and Aberdeen, where underlying demand has stayed surprisingly resilient despite recent economic headwinds.

Cracks in the Labour Market Shift the Conversation

Wednesday’s data from the Office for National Statistics revealed a labour market losing steam:

  • Unemployment has crept up to 4.7%

  • Payrolled employment is down again

  • Wage growth is decelerating—though still above the BoE’s comfort zone

Markets responded decisively. Gilt yields fell. Sterling weakened. And interest rate traders now see a 75%+ chance of an August cut—with the potential for another before the end of the year.

Put simply: the era of rapid interest rate hikes appears to be behind us. A turning point may well be at hand.

Scotland’s Market: Resilient, Not Immune

Across Scotland, the story has been one of quiet defiance.

Latest Registers of Scotland figures show that average residential prices rose 3.2% year-on-year, outperforming much of the UK. Activity levels have dipped slightly—unsurprising given the mortgage environment—but in key locations like East Lothian and Edinburgh, demand remains robust, especially for family homes and high-quality flats.

In Aberdeen, where recovery has been more gradual, the stabilising oil and gas sector and returning professionals have helped firm up values. Importantly, affordability in the northeast remains stronger than in most UK cities, putting buyers in a prime position to act swiftly if rates ease.

The underlying message? While the macroeconomic noise is real, Scotland’s housing fundamentals are holding up—especially in well-connected, desirable areas with constrained supply.

What a Rate Cut Would Unlock

For Scottish homeowners and buyers, a downward shift in the base rate could mean:

  • Lower borrowing costs: Particularly on fixed-rate products, which have already started edging down

  • Improved affordability: Especially crucial for first-time buyers in Edinburgh, where average prices hover near £325,000

  • Renewed confidence: More sellers willing to list, more buyers willing to offer—a crucial psychological trigger

We’re already seeing the early signs: more mortgage enquiries, more valuation requests, and a noticeable uptick in second-viewings.

But this won’t be a floodgate moment. The Bank of England is likely to move gradually. That gives a window of opportunity—not for panic buying, but for strategic preparation.

What We’re Advising Clients in Edinburgh, East Lothian & Aberdeen

What We’re Advising Clients in Edinburgh, East Lothian & Aberdeen

At Simpson & Marwick, our on-the-ground teams are already working with clients to:

  • Reassess mortgage strategies—especially for those nearing the end of fixed-rate deals

  • Position homes for autumn sales—a seasonal sweet spot if rates do ease in August

  • Time investment acquisitions—in prime rental markets like central Edinburgh or commuter belt villages along the East Coast rail line

In Aberdeen, the smart money is eyeing opportunities ahead of the curve, with well-priced detached properties and period flats seeing renewed interest from both owner-occupiers and landlords.

Final Thought

The jobs data may have wobbled, but for the Scottish property market, this could be the spark that re-ignites momentum heading into autumn.

If the Bank of England cuts in August, expect increased viewing activity, keener mortgage deals, and greater confidence from both buyers and sellers—especially in resilient, high-demand locations. The key is being prepared—not reactive. And as ever, Simpson & Marwick will be ready to guide you through the next move.